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Macroeconomic outlook report: Portugal

Fourth quarter of 2018

During the fourth quarter of 2018, Portugal's GDP experienced a deceleration of 0.45 p.p., reaching a year-over-year growth rate of 1.69%, mainly due to the behavior of the external sector. In terms of the labor market, the unemployment rate decreased over the previous quarter to 6.67%, while the y/y growth of employment decelerated from 3Q18 to a 1.89% rate. The euro depreciated against the dollar, registering an average exchange rate of 1.14 $/€. Lastly, inflation stood at 0.83%.

Macroeconomic overview

    • During the fourth quarter of the year, the Portuguese economy decelerated compared to the previous quarter by 0.45 p.p. reaching a rate of 1.69%. This performance was mainly explained by the behavior of the external sector, given that imports experienced a deceleration of 0.06 p.p. during 4Q18, to a growth of 3.31%. However, exports suffered a major contraction of 2.87 p.p., showing a weak growth of 0.02%.
    • In the labor market, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.10 p.p., registering a 6.67% rate, while the y/y growth rate of employment decelerated by 0.23 p.p. compared to the third quarter of the year, to 1.89%.
    • The euro depreciated against the US dollar by 0.02 dollars per euro compared to the previous quarter, registering an average exchange rate of 1.14 $/€ during 4Q18.
    • Inflation stood at 0.83% in the last quarter of 2018, 0.57 p.p. lower than in the previous quarter as a result of the continuous decline in the prices of industrial goods and the moderation of housing prices.

    For more information access the executive document in pdf (avalaible in Spanish and Portuguese).

    © GMS Management Solutions, S.L., 2019. All rights reserved. The information contained on this publication is of a general nature and does not constitute a professional opinion or an advisory service. The data used in this publication come from public sources. GMS Management Solutions, SL assumes no liability for the veracity or accuracy of such data.