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Macroeconomic outlook report: Mexico

Second quarter of 2017

In the second quarter of 2017, the Mexican economy registered an acceleration of 0.40 p.p. in the y/y growth rate of GDP with respect to the previous quarter, presenting a growth rate of 3.23%. The industrial production index registered a y/y growth rate of -0.23%, after a reduction of 0.02 p.p. compared to the previous quarter. The unemployment rate increased in the second quarter of the year, recording a rate of 3.46%. The Mexican peso appreciated against the US dollar in this period, standing at an exchange rate of 18.56 MXN/USD. Inflation recorded an increase of 1.12 p.p. when compared to the first quarter of the year, standing at 6.10% in 2Q17.

Macroeconomic overview

  • The y/y growth rate of Mexican GDP increased by 0.40 p.p. in the second quarter of the year when compared to the previous one, standing at 3.23%. The Mexican economy grew supported by domestic demand, which accelerated in this quarter driven by private investment and consumption. OECD forecasts GDP growth at 2.41% and 2.24% in 2017 and 2018, respectively.
  • The industrial production index decreased its y/y growth rate by 0.02 p.p. compared to 1Q17, standing at a negative rate of -0.23% in the second quarter of the year.
  • Regarding the labor market, the unemployment rate increased to 3.46% in the second quarter of 2017, although Mexico continued to record the fourth lowest rate among OECD countries. On the other hand, the y/y growth rate of employment decreased to 1.49% in 2Q17.
  • The Mexican currency appreciated against the US dollar, registering an exchange rate of 18.56 MXN/USD in the second quarter of the year. This rate is 1.77 pesos below that of 1Q17. The increases in the reference interest rate adopted by the Bank of Mexico in May and June have revalued the peso, stabilizing the exchange rate.
  • As for the National Consumer Price Index, it registered an increase of 1.12 p.p. when compared to the first quarter of 2017, standing at 6.10% in 2Q17. Inflation has risen significantly in recent quarters due to the pass-through effect to energy and commodity prices of the depreciation accumulated by the Mexican peso during the last quarters of 2016.

For more information click here to access the executive document in pdf (only available in Spanish).

© GMS Management Solutions, S.L., 2018. All rights reserved. The information contained on this publication is of a general nature and does not constitute a professional opinion or an advisory service. The data used in this publication come from public sources. GMS Management Solutions, SL assumes no liability for the veracity or accuracy of such data.