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Macroeconomic outlook report: Mexico

Fourth quarter of 2019

During the fourth quarter of 2019, Mexico recorded a year-over-year growth rate of -0.45%, a decreasing when compared to the previous quarter. The Mexican economy entered a technical recession after registering consecutive contractions in the last two quarters of the year. Regarding prices, inflation reached a ratio of 2.94% in 4Q19. Concerning the labor market, the unemployment rate decreased to 3.43%. The Mexican peso appreciated against the dollar, recording an average exchange rate of 19.25 MXN/USD during the fourth quarter of the year.

Macroeconomic overview

  • Mexico's GDP registered a year-over-year rate of -0.45%, decelerating by 0.20 p.p. from the previous quarter. This performance was driven by the weakness of consumption, fixed investment and manufactured exports.
  • As for the industrial activity index, during the fourth quarter of 2019 it registered a slowdown in its year-over-year growth of 0.09 p.p. with respect to the previous quarter, to a rate of -1.87%.
  • In the labor market, the unemployment rate fell by 0.12 p.p. compared to 3Q19 to 3.43% in 4Q19. The year-over-year growth rate of employment stood at 2.75% in the fourth quarter of the year, after accelerating 0.58 p.p. compared to 3Q19.
  • The Mexican peso appreciated against the U.S. dollar during 4Q19, to an average exchange rate of 19.25 pesos per dollar, 0.16 pesos per dollar less than in 3Q19, an appreciation of 0.85%.
  • Inflation reached a ratio of 2.94% in 4Q19, after decelerating 0.37 p.p. from the previous quarter.

For more information click here to access the executive document in pdf (only available in Spanish).

© GMS Management Solutions, S.L., 2020. All rights reserved. The information contained on this publication is of a general nature and does not constitute a professional opinion or an advisory service. The data used in this publication come from public sources. GMS Management Solutions, SL assumes no liability for the veracity or accuracy of such data.