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Macroeconomic outlook report: Argentina

Fourth quarter of 2018

During the fourth quarter of 2018, the Argentine economy accentuated its recession, falling at a rate of -6.21%. This was mainly due to the performance of domestic demand, which fell at a year-over-year rate of -14.31%. As for the labor market, the unemployment rate was 0.10 p.p. higher than the previous quarter, standing at 9.10%, while employment fell to a rate of -1.38%, representing a deceleration of 1.27 p.p. over the previous quarter. The peso depreciated against the dollar by 4.89 pesos per dollar with respect to 3Q18, recording an average exchange rate of 37 $ARS/USD during 4Q18. Finally, inflation stood at 47.34%, after accelerating by 11.95 p.p. with respect to 3Q18.

Macroeconomic overview

  • During 4Q18, the Argentine economy accentuated its recession, falling at a year-over-year rate of -6.21%, a higher pace than during the last quarter (-2.56 p.p.). This was mainly due to the behavior of domestic demand, which registered a year-on-year rate of -14.31%.
  • In the labor market, the unemployment rate was 0.10 p.p. higher than in the previous quarter, standing at 9.10%. Meanwhile, employment in Argentina fell at a year-over-year rate of -1.38%, a slowdown of 1.27 p.p. compared to the previous quarter.
  • The Argentine peso registered a new devaluation against the dollar, reaching an average exchange rate of 37 pesos per dollar. This figure represented an increase of 4.89 pesos per dollar compared to 3Q18.
  • In 4Q18, the variation in the CPI stood at 47.34%, after an acceleration of 11.95 p.p. with respect to the previous quarter. The BCRA stated that the sharp acceleration in price growth was due to the higher prices of services.

For more information, click here to access the executive document in pdf (only avalaible in Spanish).

© GMS Management Solutions, S.L., 2019. All rights reserved. The information contained on this publication is of a general nature and does not constitute a professional opinion or an advisory service. The data used in this publication come from public sources. GMS Management Solutions, SL assumes no liability for the veracity or accuracy of such data.