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Macroeconomic outlook report: USA

Second quarter of 2018

During the second quarter of 2018, the United States recorded a GDP acceleration of 2 p.p. compared to the previous quarter, registering a y/y growth rate of 4.20%. This performance was mainly due to the higher growth in domestic demand, which accelerated by 0.60 p.p. to 2.80%, driven by private consumption and public spending. With respect to the labor market, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.20 p.p. to 3.90%. Inflation for the period was 2.65%, after increasing by 0.40 p.p. with respect to the first quarter, while the dollar appreciated against the euro, recording an average exchange rate of 1.18 $/€ during the second quarter of the year.

Macroeconomic overview

  • The US economy grew at a rate of 4.20% year-over-year, accelerating by 2 p.p. from the previous quarter, ending the deceleration trend of the previous three quarters.
  • This growth was mainly based on domestic demand, which increased by 0.60 p.p., reaching a 2.80% year-over-year growth during the quarter, due to the accelerations presented by private and public consumption, which registered growth of 3.80% and 2.50%, respectively. Investment, on the other hand, reduced its rate with respect to 1Q18. As for external demand, exports accelerated by 5.70 p.p., despite the appreciation of the dollar.
  • With regard to the labour market, the unemployment rate fell to 3.90%, 0.20 p.p. lower than in the first quarter of the year. The year-over-year growth rate of employment slowed by 0.06 p.p. compared to 1Q18, recording a variation of 1.51%.
  • The dollar appreciated against the euro in 2Q18, to an average exchange rate of 1.18 $/€, an appreciation of 0.05 $/€ compared to the first quarter of the year, mainly due to strong growth in the US compared to the Eurozone, and the normalization of US monetary policy. 
  • Inflation stood at 2.65%, which was 0.40 p.p. higher than in the previous quarter, due to increases in energy prices.

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© GMS Management Solutions, S.L., 2019. All rights reserved. The information contained on this publication is of a general nature and does not constitute a professional opinion or an advisory service. The data used in this publication come from public sources. GMS Management Solutions, SL assumes no liability for the veracity or accuracy of such data.