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Macroeconomic outlook report: USA

Third quarter of 2018

During the third quarter of 2018, the United States recorded a GDP deceleration of 0.80 p.p. compared to the previous quarter, registering a y/y growth rate of 3.40%. This performance was mainly due to the performance of net exports of goods and services, after imports accelerated by 9.90 p.p. and exports decelerated by 14.20 p.p. With respect to the labour market, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.10 p.p. to 3.80%. Inflation for the period was 2.61%, after decreasing by 0.04 p.p. with respect to the second quarter, while the dollar appreciated against the euro, recording an average exchange rate of 1.16 $/€ during the third quarter of the year.

Macroeconomic overview

  • The US economy grew at a year-over-year rate of 3.40% during the third quarter, decelerating by 0.80 p.p. from the previous quarter.
  • This reduction was mainly based on net exports of goods and services, registering imports an expansion of 9.90 p.p., up to 9.30%, while exports registered a deceleration of 14.20 p.p., standing at -4.90%. As for domestic demand, both gross private domestic investment and government consumption experienced expansions, while personal consumption experienced a lower growth
  • With regard to the labour market, the unemployment rate fell to 3.80%, 0.10 p.p. lower than in the second quarter of the year. The year-over-year growth rate of employment slowed by 0.19 p.p. compared to 2Q18, recording a variation of 1.34%.
  • The dollar appreciated against the euro in 3Q18, to an average exchange rate of 1.16 $/€, an appreciation of 0.03 $/€ compared to the second quarter of the year, mainly due to the expectations about the future monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve and the ECB.
  • Inflation stood at 2.61%, which was 0.04 p.p. lower than in the previous quarter, due to lower growths in energy prices.

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© GMS Management Solutions, S.L., 2019. All rights reserved. The information contained on this publication is of a general nature and does not constitute a professional opinion or an advisory service. The data used in this publication come from public sources. GMS Management Solutions, SL assumes no liability for the veracity or accuracy of such data.