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Macroeconomic outlook report: USA

Fourth quarter of 2018

During the last quarter of 2018, the United States recorded a GDP deceleration of 1.20 p.p. compared to the previous quarter, registering a y/y growth rate of 2.20%. This performance was mainly due to the behavior of domestic demand, which decelerated 3.10 p.p. down to a rate of 2.20%. With respect to the labor market, the unemployment rate remained constant at 3.80%. Inflation for the period was 2.21%, after decreasing by 0.40 p.p. with respect to the third quarter, while the dollar appreciated against the euro, recording an average exchange rate of 1.14 $/€ during the fourth quarter of the year.

 

Macroeconomic overview

  • The US economy grew at a year-over-year rate of 2.20% during the last quarter of 2018, decelerating by 1.20 p.p. from the previous quarter. This reduction was mainly based on domestic demand which decelerated by 3.10 p.p. down to a rate of 2.20%, as all gross private domestic investment, government consumption and private consumption experienced lower growths. Net exports of goods and services contributed positively to GDP growth, registering exports an expansion of 6.70 p.p., up to 1.80%.
  • With regard to the labor market, the unemployment rate remained constant at 3.80% during 4Q18. The year-over-year growth rate of employment grew by 0.51 p.p. compared to 3Q18, recording a variation of 1.85%.
  • The dollar appreciated against the euro in 4Q18, to an average exchange rate of 1.14 $/€, an appreciation of 0.02 $/€ compared to the third quarter of the year, mainly due to the uncertainty about trade policy and the normalization of monetary policy.
  • Inflation stood at 2.21%, which was 0.40 p.p. lower than in the previous quarter, due to lower growths in energy and food prices.

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© GMS Management Solutions, S.L., 2019. All rights reserved. The information contained on this publication is of a general nature and does not constitute a professional opinion or an advisory service. The data used in this publication come from public sources. GMS Management Solutions, SL assumes no liability for the veracity or accuracy of such data.