During the first quarter of 2021, Denmark, Sweden and Finland continued to record slightly negative year-on-year GDP growth rates despite a partial recovery from the previous quarter, while Norway was the only country to show positive year-on-year growth. As far as inflation is concerned, Norway recorded the highest rate, and the four countries registered positive rates. Regarding the labour market, Denmark, Sweden and Finland registered higher levels of unemployment than in the previous quarter.


Macroeconomic outlook report: Nordics 1Q21

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Macroeconomic summary

  • Denmark: In the first quarter, the Danish economy continued its recovery, with a 0.30 p.p. increase in their GDP relative to the previous quarter. However, the y/y variation of its GDP registered once again a negative rate, standing at -1.14%. Regarding the inflation rate, it increased to 0.73% after a rise of 0.27 p.p. with respect to the fourth quarter. In turn, the unemployment rate increased 0.03 p.p., up to a 6.00% rate.
  • Norway: Norway experienced a deceleration in its economy of 0.80 p.p. relative to the fourth quarter, registering a year over year GDP variation rate of 0.17%, the highest rate of the four countries analysed. In turn, it recorded an inflation rate of 2.97% after an increase of 1.70 p.p., which placed Norway once again as the Nordic country with the highest inflation rate. Regarding the unemployment rate, it decreased 0.20 p.p., down to 4.60%, the lowest rate of the four countries.
  • Sweden: In the first quarter of 2021, the Swedish economy recorded an increase in its GDP growth rate of 1.72 p.p. compared to the previous quarter, registering a negative growth of -0.13%. The unemployment rate increased by 1.80 p.p. from the previous quarter to 9.70%, the highest unemployment rate of the four countries. In turn, inflation experienced a 1.23 p.p. increase, reaching a 1.57% rate.
  • Finland: As far as its y/y GDP variation rate is concerned, Finland reduced its decline by 0.20 p.p., standing at a -1.40% rate, the lowest y/y variation rate of the Nordic countries. In turn, inflation increased by 0.83 p.p. relative to the previous quarter, up to a 1.03% rate. Regarding the unemployment rate, it increased 1.00 p.p., registering a rate of 8.33%.

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