During the fourth quarter of 2020, Denmark and Finland experienced a partial recovery in their economies after the contraction suffered in the previous quarter, attenuating the decline in their year-on-year GDP growth. In turn, the y/y GDP variation rates of Norway and Sweden decreased. As far as inflation is concerned, Norway recorded the highest rate, and the four countries registered positive rates. Regarding the labour market, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland reached lower unemployment levels than in the third quarter.


Macroeconomic outlook report: Nordics 4Q20

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Macroeconomic summary

  • Denmark: In the fourth quarter, the Danish economy continued its recovery, with a 0.57 p.p. increase in their GDP relative to the previous quarter. However, the y/y variation of its GDP registered once again a negative rate, standing at -2.62%. Regarding the inflation rate, it decreased to 0.47% after a fall of 0.07 p.p. with respect to the third quarter. In turn, the unemployment rate declined 0.37 p.p., down to a 5.80% rate.
  • Norway: Norway experienced a deceleration in its economy of 6.81 p.p. relative to the third quarter, registering a year over year GDP variation rate of -4.27%, the lowest rate of the four countries analysed. In turn, it recorded an inflation rate of 1.27% after a fall of 0.26 p.p., which placed Norway once again as the Nordic country with the highest inflation rate. Regarding the unemployment rate, it decreased 0.60 p.p., down to 4.80%, the lowest rate of the four countries.
  • Sweden: In the last quarter of 2020, the Swedish economy suffered a 0.67 p.p. decrease in its y/y GDP variation rate with respect to the previous quarter, recording a negative growth of -2.30%. Regarding the unemployment rate, it continued falling, down to a 7.90% rate, after a decline of 0.70 p.p. relative to the third quarter. Nevertheless, in spite of this decline, Sweden registered the highest unemployment rate of the four countries. In turn, inflation experienced a 0.23 p.p. decrease, reaching a 0.33% rate.
  • Finland: As far as its y/y GDP variation rate is concerned, Finland reduced its decline by 1.00 p.p., standing at a -1.70% rate, the highest y/y variation rate of the Nordic countries. In turn, inflation feel by 0.11 p.p. relative to the previous quarter, down to a 0.21% rate. Regarding the unemployment rate, it decreased 0.30 p.p., registering a rate of 7.37%.

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