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Macroeconomic outlook report: Nordics

First quarter of 2018

During the first quarter of 2018, only Finland accelerated its year-over-year growth rate when compared to the previous quarter, while Sweden kept it at 3.29%, recording the highest rate in the Nordic countries this quarter. For its part, Denmark recorded a negative growth rate of -0.61%. Regarding inflation, Norway presented the highest rate of the four countries for this quarter, with 2%, while Denmark registered the lowest, with 0.60%. In addition, Norway recorded the lowest unemployment rate of 4%, the highest being that of Finland, with 8.73%.

Macroeconomic summary

  • Denmark: GDP growth decelerated by 1.93 p.p. to -0.61% in 1Q18, based on the deceleration of both internal and external demand. The inflation rate stood at 0.60%, the lowest of the period, after a decrease of 0.67 p.p. compared to the previous quarter. The unemployment rate fell 0.43 p.p. this quarter down to 4.97%.
  • Norway: Norwegian GDP experienced a reduction in its growth rate of 0.21 p.p. compared to the previous quarter, registering 1.85%. This behavior was due to the slowdown in domestic demand. Inflation stood at 2% after an increase of 0.70 p.p. in the first quarter of 2018, the highest rate among the four countries. On the other hand, the unemployment rate increased 0.20 p.p. in the first quarter of the year up to 4%, remaining the lowest rate among all the Nordic countries.
  • Sweden: during the first quarter of the year, Sweden maintained its GDP growth rate stable compared to the previous quarter, at 3.29%, although it experienced decelerations in residential investment and private spending. Also, inflation was reduced by 0.07 p.p. compared to 4Q17, reaching 1.70% in this quarter, close to the 2% target set by the Central Bank of Sweden. The unemployment rate increased to 6.60% in 1Q18, 0.60 p.p. above the one registered in the previous quarter.
  • Finland: during the first quarter of the year, Finland registered an acceleration of 0.28 p.p. in its y/y growth rate of GDP when compared to the previous quarter, reaching a rate of 2.92%, being the only country that accelerated its growth. The performance of the GDP was due to the higher growth of domestic demand. The inflation rate increased by 0.13 p.p. compared to the previous quarter, up to 0.73%. The unemployment rate experienced an increase of 1.13 p.p. when compared to the previous quarter, up to 8.73%, the highest of the four economies.

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© GMS Management Solutions, S.L., 2018. All rights reserved. The information contained on this publication is of a general nature and does not constitute a professional opinion or an advisory service. The data used in this publication come from public sources. GMS Management Solutions, SL assumes no liability for the veracity or accuracy of such data.