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Macroeconomic outlook report: Nordics

Fourth quarter of 2018

During the last quarter of 2018, only Denmark decelerated its year-over-year growth rate when compared to the previous quarter. Norway, Sweden and Finland presented growth upturns, being the increase experimented by Sweden the largest one. Regarding inflation, Norway presented the highest rate of the four countries for this quarter, with 3.37%, while Denmark and Finland registered the lowest ones, of 0.80% and 1.33%. In terms of the labor market, Norway recorded the lowest unemployment rate, of 3.50%, while the highest one was the Finnish one, with 5.97%.

Macroeconomic summary

  • Denmark: GDP growth decelerated by 0.19 p.p. to 3.28% in 4Q18, based on the deceleration of internal demand, being the only country decelerating its GDP growth. The inflation rate stood at 0.80%, the lowest of the period, after a decrease of 0.15 p.p. compared to the previous quarter. The unemployment rate raised 0.09 p.p. this quarter up to 4.97%.
  • Norway: Norwegian GDP experienced an increment in its growth rate of 0.27 p.p. compared to the previous quarter, registering a 1.86% rate. This behavior was due to the acceleration in external demand. Inflation stood at 3.37% after an increase of 0.10 p.p. in the last quarter of 2018, the highest rate among the four countries. On the other hand, the unemployment rate decreased 0.50 p.p. in the last quarter of the year down to 3.50%, remaining the lowest rate among all the Nordic countries.
  • Sweden: during the fourth quarter of the year, Swedish GDP accelerated by 0.47 p.p., recording the second highest rate of 2.35%. The expansion was due to higher growth in external demand. Also, inflation decreased by 0.03 p.p. compared to 3Q18, reaching 2.10% in this quarter. The unemployment rate decreased by 0.40 p.p. to 5.70% in 4Q18, the second highest of the period.
  • Finland: during the last quarter of the year, Finland registered an acceleration of 0.02 p.p. in its y/y growth rate of GDP when compared to the previous quarter, reaching a rate of 2.17%. GDP’s performance was caused by the higher growth of domestic demand. The inflation rate remained constant compared to the previous quarter in 1.33%. The unemployment rate experienced a decrease of 0.56 p.p. when compared to the previous quarter, down to 5.97%, the highest of the four economies.

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© GMS Management Solutions, S.L., 2019. All rights reserved. The information contained on this publication is of a general nature and does not constitute a professional opinion or an advisory service. The data used in this publication come from public sources. GMS Management Solutions, SL assumes no liability for the veracity or accuracy of such data.