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Macroeconomic outlook report: Italy

Third quarter of 2018

During the third quarter of 2018, Italian GDP experienced a deceleration of 0.53 p.p. in its year-over-year growth rate when compared to the previous quarter, registering a rate of 0.66%. The y/y growth rate of Industrial Production Index decelerated by 3.39 p.p. to -0.13%. In the labour market, the unemployment rate fell when compared to the second quarter of 2018, to 10.24%, while the year-over-year rate of employment creation slowed by 0.54 p.p. to a rate of 0.86%. The euro depreciated against the dollar, recording an average exchange rate of 1.16 $/€. Finally, inflation stood at 1.48%.

Macroeconomic overview

  • During the third quarter of the year, the Italian economy registered a deceleration in its year-over-year growth rate of 0.53 p.p. compared to the previous quarter, to 0.66%. This behavior was mainly due to the deceleration of domestic demand, due to the decrease in the growth of private consumption and gross fixed capital formation.
  • In the labour market, the unemployment rate fell by 0.47 p.p. from the previous quarter, to 10.24%. The year-over-year growth rate of employment was 0.86%, decelerating by 0.54 p.p. with respect to the previous quarter.
  • The euro depreciated against the US dollar by 0.03 dollars per euro in the third quarter of 2018, recording an average exchange rate of 1.16 $/€. This depreciation was partly due to the expectations about the future monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve and the ECB.
  • Inflation stood at 1.48% in the third quarter of 2018, accelerating by 0.56 p.p. from the previous quarter, mainly due to the acceleration in the price of energy.

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