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Macroeconomic outlook report: Colombia

Second quarter of 2017

During the second quarter of 2017, the y/y growth rate of Colombian GDP stood at 1.22%, after registering a slowdown of 0.07 p.p. with respect to the previous quarter. The y/y growth rate of domestic demand reached 1.86% in this period, after increasing by 0.5 p.p. over the first quarter of 2017. With regard to the labour market, the y/y growth rate of employment increased to a rate of 2.48%, while the unemployment rate decreased by 0.99 p.p. to 8.72%. The Colombian peso depreciated with respect to the dollar in this quarter, reaching 2,969 $COP/USD. Inflation stood at 3.99% in 2Q17, after decreasing by 0.70 p.p. with respect to the previous quarter.

Macroeconomic overview

  • Colombian GDP y/y growth rate experienced a decrease of 0.07 p.p. during the second quarter of the year with respect to the previous one, down to a rate of 1.22%. The main driver of this behavior was the weaker growth of net exports, even with the acceleration in public and private consumption during this quarter. The OECD forecasts Colombian GDP growth at 1.70% and 2.80% in 2017 and 2018, respectively.
  • Domestic demand registered an increase of 0.50 p.p. in its y/y growth rate, standing at 1.86% in 2Q17. The acceleration of public consumption growth and fixed capital investments boosted domestic demand in this quarter.
  • Regarding the labour market, the unemployment rate stood at 8.72% in the second quarter of 2017, which represents a decrease of 0.99 p.p. when compared to the previous quarter. With respect to 2Q16, employment registered a 2.48% increase, a higher rate than the y/y growth rate registered in 1Q17.
  • The exchange rate of the Colombian peso stood at 2,969 $COP/USD in this period, which represents a depreciation by 2.24% when compared to the previous quarter. The unexpected fall of oil prices, together with higher foreign capital inflows, explain the depreciation of the Colombian currency.
  • Inflation stood at 3.99% in 2Q17, after a decrease of 0.70 p.p. when compared to the previous quarter. A more favorable climate allowed for a decrease in the price of food, which has been the main factor contributing to this inflation decrease. The expected stability of the dollar in 2017 and 2018 will help inflation continue to decelerate.

For more information, click here to access the executive document in pdf (only avalaible in Spanish).

© GMS Management Solutions, S.L., 2018. All rights reserved. The information contained on this publication is of a general nature and does not constitute a professional opinion or an advisory service. The data used in this publication come from public sources. GMS Management Solutions, SL assumes no liability for the veracity or accuracy of such data.