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Macroeconomic outlook report: Spain

Third quarter of 2017

During the third quarter of 2017, Spanish GDP recorded an acceleration of 0.05 p.p. in its y/y growth rate with respect to the previous quarter, to 3.14%. This behavior is explained by a greater growth of the investment in fixed capital during this period. The unemployment rate decreased by 0.84 p.p. to 16.38%, while the year-on-year employment growth rate increased by 0.05 p.p., reaching 2.70%. With respect to the exchange rate, the euro recorded a slight appreciation against the dollar, standing at 1.17 $/€ in the third quarter of the year.

Macroeconomic overview

  • During the third quarter of the year, the Spanish economy registered an acceleration in its y/y growth rate of 0.05 p.p. when compared to the previous quarter, to 3.14%. This behavior is explained by a greater growth of the investment in fixed capital during this period. External demand continued to register a positive contribution to GDP growth.
  • National demand growth accelerated by 0.40 p.p. when compared to the second quarter of 2017, increasing to 2.72%. This behavior was due to the increase in the annual growth rate of the investment in fixed capital previously mentioned.
  • The unemployment rate stood at 16.38% at the end of the third quarter, after decreasing by 0.84 p.p. when compared to the previous quarter, which was mainly due to a seasonal effect. The y/y growth rate of employment stood at 2.70% after accelerating by 0.05 p.p.
  • The euro recorded a slight appreciation against the dollar, with the exchange rate standing at 1.17 $/€ in 3Q17, which means an increase of 0.07 $/€ when compared to 2Q17. This appreciation of the euro against the dollar is explained by the good growth prospects of the European economies, as well as the uncertainty about the US fiscal policy.
  • The Spanish Consumer Price Index decreased in the third quarter of 2017 at a rate of 1.63%, after decelerating by 0.37 p.p. compared to the previous quarter. This slowdown is explained by a marked deceleration in energy prices, as a result of the evolution of the price of oil and the reduction in electricity prices.

For more information, click here to access the executive document in pdf (only avalaible in Spanish).

  • During the second quarter of the year, the Spanish economy registered an acceleration in its y/y growth rate of 0.08 p.p. when compared to the previous quarter, to 3.09%. This behavior is explained by a higher growth of final consumption during this period, partially offset by the lower growth of the investment. External demand continued to register a positive contribution to GDP growth.
  • National demand growth deaccelerated by 0.04 p.p. when compared to the first quarter of 2017, decreasing to 2.32%. This behavior was due to the decrease in the annual growth rate of gross fixed capital formation, despite the higher growth in consumption in all segments.
  • The unemployment rate stood at 17.22% at the end of the second quarter, after decreasing by 1.53 p.p. when compared to the previous quarter, which was mainly due to a seasonal effect. The y/y growth rate of employment stood at 2.65% after accelerating by 0.23 p.p.
  • The euro recorded a slight depreciation against the dollar, with the exchange rate standing at 1.10 $/€ in 2Q17, which means an increase of 0.04 $/€ when compared to 1Q17. This appreciation of the euro against the dollar is explained by the good growth prospects of the European economies, as well as the uncertainty about the US fiscal policy.
  • The Spanish Consumer Price Index grew in the second quarter of 2017 at a rate of 2%, after decelerating by 0.77 p.p. compared to the previous quarter. This slowdown is explained by a marked deceleration in energy prices, as a result of the evolution of the price of oil and the reduction in electricity prices.
  • The Spanish Consumer Price Index grew in the first quarter of 2017 at a rate of 2.77%, after accelerating by 1.77 p.p. compared to the previous quarter. The acceleration in the growth rates of energy prices and, to a lesser extent, of food prices, were the main drivers of the increase in inflation during this quarter.

For more information, click here to access the executive document in pdf (only avalaible in Spanish).

© GMS Management Solutions, S.L., 2018. All rights reserved. The information contained on this publication is of a general nature and does not constitute a professional opinion or an advisory service. The data used in this publication come from public sources. GMS Management Solutions, SL assumes no liability for the veracity or accuracy of such data.