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Macroeconomic outlook report: Poland

Second quarter of 2017

In the second quarter of the year, Polish GDP recorded a y/y growth rate of 3.90%, 0.10 p.p. lower than the one presented in the previous quarter. The unemployment rate decreased for the sixth consecutive quarter, down to 5%, while employment growth decreased to 3.40% compared to the 3.50% rate registered in the previous quarter. The zloty appreciated against the euro during this quarter, reaching 4.22 PLN/€ after a reduction of 0.10 PLN/€ compared to the previous quarter. Inflation recorded a reduction of 0.17 p.p. over the previous quarter, down to 1.80%.

Macroeconomic overview

  • In the second quarter of 2017, Polish GDP recorded a y/y reduction of 0.10 p.p. compared to the previous quarter, reaching a growth rate of 3.90%. The stabilization of the growth rate of GDP in this quarter was mainly driven by the deceleration in the growth rate of net exports, as domestic demand growth increased in this quarter.
  • During the second quarter, domestic demand recorded an increase of 1.50 p.p. in its y/y growth rate compared to the first quarter of 2017, reaching 5.60% in 2Q17. The increase in domestic demand growth in this quarter was driven by all of its components, as both total consumption and gross capital formation recorded higher growth rates when compared to 1Q17.
  • The unemployment rate decreased in the second quarter of the year by 0.40 p.p. down to 5%, registering a reduction for the sixth consecutive quarter. The total number of unemployed people decreased to 863,000 in 2Q17. The y/y growth rate of employment decreased by 0.10 p.p. over the previous quarter, down to 3.40%.
  • The exchange rate stood at 4.22 PLN/€ in 2Q17, which represents an appreciation of 0.10 PLN/€ when compared to the rate registered in the previous quarter. This performance was driven by a reduction in risk aversion in financial markets in this quarter, as well as an improvement of the country’s economic outlook.
  • Inflation reached a rate of 1.80%, after decreasing by 0.17 p.p. compared to the previous quarter. Thus, the stabilization of inflation in this quarter was due to the fading impact of the increase in commodity prices experienced in 1Q17.

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© GMS Management Solutions, S.L., 2018. All rights reserved. The information contained on this publication is of a general nature and does not constitute a professional opinion or an advisory service. The data used in this publication come from public sources. GMS Management Solutions, SL assumes no liability for the veracity or accuracy of such data.