Macroeconomic outlook report: Poland

During the fourth quarter of the year, the Polish economy registered a 5% y/y GDP growth rate, decelerating by 0.10 p.p. compared to previous period, mainly due to the lower growth of domestic demand, falling to 4.80%. In the labor market, the unemployment rate kept constant compared to 3Q18, showing a rate of 3.80%; while the y/y growth rate of employment decelerated by 0.10 p.p. to 2.60%. The zloty depreciated against the euro during the last quarter of 2018, with the exchange rate standing at 4.31 PLN/€, 0.03 PLN/€ higher than the one registered in 3Q18.

Macroeconomic overview

• During the last quarter of 2018, Polish GDP registered a deceleration on its y/y growth of 0.10 p.p. when compared to 3Q18, standing at 5%.
• The driver of the GDP growth was the acceleration of external demand, but insufficient to manage the decrease of domestic demand, of 1.40 p.p. to 4.80%.
• As for the labor market, the Polish unemployment rate stood at 3.80% in the last quarter of 2018, keeping the same rate as the one showed in 3Q18. For its part, the y/y growth rate of employment decreased by 0.10 p.p. to 2.60%.
• The zloty depreciated against the euro during the last quarter of 2018, with the exchange rate standing at 4.31 PLN/€, 0.03 PLN/€ higher than the one registered in 3Q18.
• During this quarter, inflation broke the upward trend started on the first quarter of 2018, decelerating by 0.57 p.p. to a y/y growth rate of 1.40% in 4Q18.

For more information, click here to access the executive document in pdf.